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Modest upticks this morning

STIR FUTURES

Some upside pressures across the SONIA strip and Euribor Whites / Reds this morning with little movement from the Eurodollar strip since it fell a little just after the US close.

  • SONIA strip up to 3.0 ticks higher around the 2-year part of the curve, with a small flattening before that point and steepening after (the steepening removing some of the inversion). Markets still pricing in 34bp for May (around 1/3 chance of a 50bp hike with 25bp fully priced), 105bp priced by September (4 meetings) and 131bp priced by year-end (6 meetings).
  • Euribor Whites / Reds up to 1.5 ticks higher but Greens / Blues largely unch / 0.5 ticks lower. Pricing for September remains in the 20-25bp range at 22bps (just under 90% of a 25bp hike priced) with 44bp priced by year end.
  • Eurodollar futures up to 4 ticks lower, but the moves all happened by 22:00GMT last night with little movement since. Markets price 44bp for May, 152bp by September (4 meetings) and 193bp by year end (6 meetings).

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