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Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as part of the New Democratic Alliance, looks set to lose power in India's most populous state in next year's regional election according to the latest poll from DB Live.

  • India (Uttar Pradesh), DB Live seat projection: Regional election: Samajwadi Party + (Centre-left|Centrist): 195-203 (+6), NDA (Right): 147-155 (-2), United Progressive Alliance (UPA, Centre-left): 24-32 (-1), Bahujan Samaj Party (Centre-left): 12-20 (-4). +/- vs. October 2021. Fieldwork: 27 November 2021
  • The Uttar Pradesh election is the seventh-largest democratic exercise on earth. The only contests with greater electorates are the Indian federal, US presidential, Indonesian presidential, Pakistani general, Brazilian presidential, and Nigerian presidential elections.
  • While this is just one poll, with just two months until the election starts in February (finishing in March), there will be concern among Modi's BJP that the loss of such a pivotal state to the centre-left SP+ could damage the gov'ts credibility at the federal level.
  • Much rests on the ability of SP head and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav to keep unity within the SP+ coalition, formed by nine separate political parties.