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Momentum on EM Currencies Remains Firm As CNY Consolidation Continues

EM FX
  • We have seen that the sharp consolidation in the USDCNY in the past ten days has led to a strong rebound in EM FX.
  • Appetite for Latam currencies has been strong, with BRL being the top performer among the EM world (excl. RUB), up 5.5% against the US Dollar (since May 13).
    • USDBRL fell below the 4.80 level this week; next key support to watch on the downside stands at 4.60.
  • Interest for CEE currencies, which has also been sensitive to the Russia/Ukraine development, has been rising, with PLN being the best performing of the region, up 4.8% against the greenback.
  • TRY remains the most vulnerable currency in the current environment amid rising political uncertainty (divergence with the West – NATO) and dovish CBRT.
    • USDTRY broke above the 16 resistance in today’s trading session and is down 3.7% against the dollar (since May 13).

Source: Bloomberg

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