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Momentum on Equities Remains Firm Despite PLN weakness

POLAND
  • Momentum on Polish equities have remained firm in recent weeks despite the rise in uncertainty and the constant PLN depreciation.
  • The chart below shows the strong divergence between USDPLN (inverted) and WIG20 index, which have generally co-moved strongly together in the past cycle.
  • We previously saw that there are several factors that could impact Polish risky assets in the near to medium term: ongoing dispute with EU, FX-loan settlements, rise in LT rates….
  • In addition, the inversion of the yield curve recently and the sharp upward retracement in short-term rates have increased the probability of a recession coming ahead.
  • With the Fed tapering, momentum on Polish equities could start to fade as liquidity starts to dry up.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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