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Momentum on EURHUF Still Looks Bullish

HUNGARY
  • EURHUF consolidated lower yesterday following the NBH hawkish response to the elevated inflationary pressures.
  • As a reminder, the central bank decided to proceed with a 185bps hike, levitating the base rate to 7.75%, its highest level since August 2009.
  • The NBH will also readjust its 1W depo rate by 50bps on Thursday (June 30) and then proceed with monthly decisions on both the base rate and the 1W depo rate, unless the HUF keeps weakening in the near term.
  • As a depreciating HUF keeps de-anchoring inflation expectations, further weakness in the forint will lead to more readjustment via the 1W depo rate.
  • Interestingly, momentum on EURHUF still looks bullish.
  • The pair is currently testing the low of its LT upward trending channel; a break below that support line would open the door for a move down to 390.
  • Next key level to watch below that stands at 388.50 (76.4% Fibo retracement of 352.40 – 399.60 range + 50DMA).

Source: Bloomberg

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