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Momentum Valuation Is Now Half Cheaper

EQUITIES
  • Some investors have argued that the rise in inflationary pressure in 2021 could generate the start of a 'Great Rotation' from growth to value stocks, and also potentially ease the trend we have seen on momentum stocks.
  • While momentum stocks have been trading sideways in the past few months since their peak reached in mid-February, this chart shows that the Momentum value was cut in half this year on rebalancing toward cheaper shares; the 12M forward P/E ratio plunged from a high of 36 to 18.
  • As most developed economies are gradually preparing for the global reopening, earnings are expected to rebound sharply in the coming months (hence, lower forward PE ratio) leading to the potential start of another new trend in momentum stocks.
  • In addition, global liquidity is still increasing and has historically strongly supported growth and momentum stocks in the past cycle.

Source: Bloomberg


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