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Mondelez (MDLZ; Baa1/ BBB) Issuing in $s

CONSUMER STAPLES

Issuing a Bmrk $10y, IPT is T+120a, +20 north of secondary/tad tight ($ books have been tightening -30).

- No significant € maturities for next 2 years.


  • FY guidance is for organic +3-5% growth, EPS to grow HSD and FCF>$3.5b ($3.6b last year). Growth YTD has been price driven (+5.5% vs. volumes -2.1%), some exposure to Cocoa prices but that looks to be becoming less of a issue; {Cocoa futures -40% from highs}.
  • LT potential headwinds for these snacking co's are how appetite supressing drugs (GLP-1 agonists) impact consumption trends/volumes. As expected mgmt downplayed that late last year; "think the whole topic has been overblown, At this stage, we see absolutely no short-term impact on our results. We don't see it in our business. We are, of course, monitoring and we have a special work stream to stay close to the topic... But long-term, even using the most optimistic forecast, we believe the impact will be very modest to our volumes in our categories. We're talking about 0.5% to 1% volume effect 10 years down the road.... And that assumes quite significant adoption rates of the drug".
  • Affirmed at BBB by S&P this morning.

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