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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
The Fed has just released its semi-annual monetary policy report. As per usual, the report contains much of the same language and messaging as we've heard previously from the Fed in recent months, including at the mid-June FOMC meeting.
- Regarding headlines appearing on wires to the effect of "Fed Report: Upside Risks to Inflation Outlook Have Increased" (from Bloomberg), that's a little misleading - these appear to be referring to the report's section on inflation expectations, not the Fed's view itself on inflation outcomes.
- This is from a special section on developments in inflation expectations:- "Recent readings on these measures indicate that inflation is expected to return to levels consistent with the Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation objective after a period of temporarily higher inflation. That said, some measures suggest that the upside risks to the inflation outlook in the near term have increased."
- More specifically, the report cites "the probability distribution of PCE inflation for 2022 derived from the Survey of Professional Forecasters suggests that the average respondent now appears to attach lower probabilities to outcomes of infl ation below 2 percent, and somewhat higher odds of inflation running above 3 percent". See chart.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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