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Month-End Models Point To USD Buying Needs

FOREX
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Some sell-side month-end FX model indications are given below:

  • Barclays: The passive month-end rebalancing model shows a strong USD buying need against most majors. They note a slightly weaker buying signal for USD/JPY and warn that crowded long USD positions may dampen the signal of the overall model.
  • Credit Agricole: USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the CAD. They also suggest that corporate names have a particular need to sell the EUR.
  • A reminder that Friday’s activity (covering month-end value date) saw a USD rally into the 16:00 WMR fix, but the recovery in the JPY has driven the BBDXY through Friday’s lows in the time since.
  • Month-end rebalancing flows typically occur across the period beginning with month-end value date through the final business day of the month.
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Some sell-side month-end FX model indications are given below:

  • Barclays: The passive month-end rebalancing model shows a strong USD buying need against most majors. They note a slightly weaker buying signal for USD/JPY and warn that crowded long USD positions may dampen the signal of the overall model.
  • Credit Agricole: USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the CAD. They also suggest that corporate names have a particular need to sell the EUR.
  • A reminder that Friday’s activity (covering month-end value date) saw a USD rally into the 16:00 WMR fix, but the recovery in the JPY has driven the BBDXY through Friday’s lows in the time since.
  • Month-end rebalancing flows typically occur across the period beginning with month-end value date through the final business day of the month.