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Monthly activity data broadly in line with expectations

  • UK GDP was broadly in line with consensus with the M/M number at +0.2% (as expected) but a small downward revision to the July print from -0.5%M/M to -0.6%M/M.
  • Today's report takes into account the initial Blue Book findings which revise the series up to 2021 and the ONS notes that GDP now stands 2.1% higher than in February 2020.
  • Looking at the components, services were a bit stronger than expected but industrial production and construction were both weaker than expected.
  • The ONS said growth of between 0.21% and 0.49% would be needed in September for a flat GDP reading on the quarter, assuming no revisions to prior months.
  • The data is in line with the BOE's forecasts, perhaps very slightly weaker, but will offer little to any discussions ahead of the November policy meeting and as such there has been very little market reaction.

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