MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, June 27

MNI BRIEF: China EU In Close Communication - MOFCOM

MNI BRIEF: China To Hold Key Third Plenum On July 15-18

MNI Brief: China Third Plenum To Deepen Reforms

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY80 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

Thedeen Does Not Commit To Cut In August, Depends on Data

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE APF on Monday

External Demand An Upside Risk to Riksbank Rate Path

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Monthly GDP Offers First Main Local Data Since BoC Decision

CANADA
  • Today see monthly GDP for Nov/Dec advance at 0830ET, landing shortly after US ADP employment and likely overshadowed by the US ECI for Q4 at the same time.
  • Nevertheless, it marks an important domestic update, with analysts sticking with the 0.1% estimate from last month’s advance. If accurate, it would see the first monthly GDP growth since May.
  • Looking to December, alternate advance estimates are mostly stronger on the month but they’re also nominal measures. Retail sales (+0.8%) and wholesale sales (+0.8%) both increased, as did hours worked (+0.4% after -0.7%) but manufacturing sales slipped (-0.6%).
  • As it is, TD look for “another weak” 0.0-0.1% in Dec whilst CIBC note indicators have “been somewhat mixed, albeit leaning towards a further slight increase in activity.”
  • A flat December advance and no revisions would tentatively leave Q4 GDP at just 0.5% annualized on an industry basis. The BoC last week lowered its Q4 GDP forecast from 0.8% to 0.0% (based on the different expenditure approach).
  • With a high bar to further hikes, especially after the BoC's somewhat dovish pivot, risks from a market reaction perspective are likely skewed towards a softer print.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.