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Monthly Indicators Show Further Consumption Weakness


Swedish September consumption/production indicators provided more evidence of a deteriorating consumer demand outlook. The prints provide more context re the September monthly GDP indicator, which printed at -0.5% M/M (vs a downwardly revised -0.5% prior) and -3.0% Y/Y (vs 0.1% prior).

  • Household consumption fell -0.5% M/M, -0.7% Y/Y, while August figures were revised lower to +0.4% M/M and +0.3% Y/Y.
  • Private sector production fell -1.4% Y/Y, as the services production component fell -1.0% Y/Y and construction fell -4.0% Y/Y. Industrial production at +1.9% Y/Y contributed to the upside.
  • The increase in domestic and export market industrial orders was a bright spot of the print, with overall industrial orders rising +4.2% M/M (vs a 1.0pp upwardly revised +6.0% prior).
  • Scandi markets have paid little attention to the Swedish release, with higher-than-expected Norwegian CPI providing the most market impetus for Scandi FX. NOKSEK is up +0.7% on the day at typing after falling the last 6 trading days.

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