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NEW ZEALAND: Monthly Inflation Data Consistent With More Easing

NEW ZEALAND
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November monthly price indices covering around 40% of the NZ CPI were released today and are generally consistent with inflation remaining contained allowing another rate cut on February 19. The RBNZ is forecasting headline Q4 CPI to rise 0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y after 0.5% q/q and 2.2% y/y. Quarterly petrol, new rents and domestic air transport prices are likely to be higher, while food, international air transport and accommodation services lower. 

  • Food prices fell 0.1% m/m after -0.9% in October to be up 1.3% y/y after 1.2% the previous two months. Vegetables fell 7.9% m/m while fruit rose 4%, leaving the two together down 2.9%. Grocery food rose 0.2% m/m to be up 2.5% y/y.
  • Petrol prices rose 1.5% m/m in November to be down 10.1% y/y up from -13.9% y/y. Both petrol and diesel rose on the month following higher global oil prices in October.
  • The largest rise was in domestic air transport up 10.8% m/m following a 2.6% rise to leave the component up 9.6% y/y. Whereas, international air fell 2.7% m/m and 1.8% y/y. Accommodation services fell 1.9% m/m but the annual rate picked up to 5.5% from 5.2%.
  • Rental increases were subdued as new contracts rose 0.1% m/m and 1.0% y/y and existing ones 0.2% m/m and 4.1% y/y, down slightly.
  • Alcohol and tobacco fell 0.2% m/m to be 5.1% y/y higher (October +5.4% y/y) due to a fall in alcohol prices and steady cigarettes & tobacco. 
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November monthly price indices covering around 40% of the NZ CPI were released today and are generally consistent with inflation remaining contained allowing another rate cut on February 19. The RBNZ is forecasting headline Q4 CPI to rise 0.4% q/q and 2.1% y/y after 0.5% q/q and 2.2% y/y. Quarterly petrol, new rents and domestic air transport prices are likely to be higher, while food, international air transport and accommodation services lower. 

  • Food prices fell 0.1% m/m after -0.9% in October to be up 1.3% y/y after 1.2% the previous two months. Vegetables fell 7.9% m/m while fruit rose 4%, leaving the two together down 2.9%. Grocery food rose 0.2% m/m to be up 2.5% y/y.
  • Petrol prices rose 1.5% m/m in November to be down 10.1% y/y up from -13.9% y/y. Both petrol and diesel rose on the month following higher global oil prices in October.
  • The largest rise was in domestic air transport up 10.8% m/m following a 2.6% rise to leave the component up 9.6% y/y. Whereas, international air fell 2.7% m/m and 1.8% y/y. Accommodation services fell 1.9% m/m but the annual rate picked up to 5.5% from 5.2%.
  • Rental increases were subdued as new contracts rose 0.1% m/m and 1.0% y/y and existing ones 0.2% m/m and 4.1% y/y, down slightly.
  • Alcohol and tobacco fell 0.2% m/m to be 5.1% y/y higher (October +5.4% y/y) due to a fall in alcohol prices and steady cigarettes & tobacco.