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Moody’s Changes Liberty Global Outlook To Negative

COMMUNICATIONS

New Profile: Ba3[N]/BB-[S]


  • Action driven by weaker than expected performance at VM02 and Telenet while the spin-off of Sunrise is seen as negative for the business profile and FCF outlook.
  • Moody's expects stable adj-NET leverage around 7x and net leverage around 5.5x for 2024 and 2025, with slightly lower levels when including joint ventures.
  • They see Moody’s-adj CFO/debt ratio of approximately 24% in 2024 and 21% in 2025, with the impact of Sunrise's deconsolidation partially mitigated by increased dividends from JVs.
  • An upgrade, while unlikely, could come if op performance improves significantly, gross debt/EBITDA <4x and Moody's-adjusted CFO/debt >25%
  • Downward pressure could arise from significant use of cash for shareholder remuneration or M&A, marked deterioration in operating performance, or a decrease in CFO/debt <20%.
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