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Moody’s Report Sees Macroprudential Measures Unable to Restore Stability

TURKEY
  • Late on Friday, Moody’s cut the Turkish sovereign rating to B3 from B2, revising the outlook to stable in the process. Moody’s write that the current account deficit will likely exceed earlier expectations by a wide margin, adding more pressure to external financing needs and compounded by tightening global conditions. Moody’s analysts add that the macroprudential measures rolled out by the authorities in lieu of CBRT rate hikes are unlikely to be effective in restoring economic stability.
  • Finance minister Nebati has responded to criticism of the currency-protected deposit scheme (KKM), claiming that those who criticise the programme lack ‘goodwill’ and that the KKM is one of the most important instruments against the excessive FX volatility triggering inflation. Nebati cited usage of the accounts as reaching 1/3rd of all savers.
  • Dunya report that agricultural product inflation has reached a new high, touching 158% on a year-on-year basis in July.
  • Turkey’s stats institute report Q2 unemployment rate dropped 0.4 ppts to 10.6%.
  • A global rise in oil and a fluctuating exchange rate are continuing to put a strain on Turkish fuel prices, with the price of diesel expected to increase by 1.26 lira tomorrow, Dunya report. Currently, the price of a litre of diesel in Istanbul is 23.18 lira.
  • The Treasury and Finance Ministry will publish budget balance data for July at 9am BST (11am local time). The previous deficit was 31.1bn lira.
  • Elsewhere, President Erdogan will speak both to his party’s executives at 12pm BST (2pm local time) and at the AK Party’s 21st anniversary ceremony in Ankara at 5pm BST (7pm local time).
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