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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
IDR
The rupiah is slightly firmer in early dealings, with USD/IDR back to 15350 (we were closer to 15340 in earlier dealings). This is back to earlier March lows and compares with recent highs around the 15480 level. The 20-day EMA sits nearby, around the 15320/25 level, while the 50 and 100 sit in the 15290/95 range. We haven't been below these support points since late Feb/early Mar.
- The local data calendar is empty now until early April. Currency sentiment is likely to be dictated by offshore drivers.
- Stabilization in global equities and other risk gauges, like Indonesia 5yr CDS, which is back to 116, after touching 123/24 yesterday are helpful.
- A more enduring rally is likely to require a more concerted pick up from offshore flows into local bonds. Foreign holdings trended down through Feb and the first half of Mar, before rebounding late last week, see the chart below (last Friday saw +$255.7mn in inflows).
- Emerging markets sentiment has held up to some degree during the recent bout of global volatility. Less exposure to global banking woes, coupled with a potential reduced pace of key developed market central bank tightening, are positives (see this link and this link for more details).
Fig 1: Foreign Holdings Of Indonesia Bonds
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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