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More Than Half Of Economists In "Obserwator Finansowy" Poll Expect NBP Rate Cuts This Autumn

NBP

Almost 90% of more than 100 economists surveyed by Obserwator Finansowy between May 31 - June 5 said that they expect Poland's CPI inflation to reach single-digit territory by the end of this year. Among them, 77% believe that it will happen in September or 4Q2023 rising, up from around 60% in the previous month's poll.

  • The proportion of economists expecting an NBP rate cut this autumn (in September or in 4Q2023) increased to 54% from around 50% last month. This time around, half of respondents said there will be scope for lowering interest rates by 25bp this year, up from 36% last month.
  • It is worth noting that the discrepancy between the number of economists expecting the NBP to deliver rate cuts in the final four months of the year and seeing scope for cuts this year has tightened notably.
  • Responses may have been influenced by most recent macroeconomic data, particularly below-forecast flash CPI readings for May. Final readings will be published on Thursday, with core CPI coming up on Friday.
  • Respondents represented 24 different institutions, including local banks, universities and think tanks.
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