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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Trade

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  • Morgan Stanley see payrolls rising 325k (consensus 268k), almost entirely driven by the private sector’s 320k as service sectors lead the way being generally less prone to tightening financial conditions.
  • They see the latest JOLTS data as still showing signs of very high excess demand and with workers remaining confident enough to leave their job.
  • Other indicators have been a little weaker, including the four-week average of initial claims increasing 25k in the reference week (but continued claims still at its lowest level since the 1970s) whilst the Conference Board ‘s labor market differential showed a softening from its extremely tight levels.
  • There was also some weakness in ISM employment components though, falling to the lowest level since Aug’20 (mfg) and Jul’20 (services), although service comments continue to highlight staffing challenges.
  • MS see the u/e rate steady at 3.6% despite the participation rate ticking up a tenth to 62.4%.
  • AHE seen rising an above consensus +0.4% M/M supported by an upward calendar bias whilst the average weekly hours keep to 34.6.

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