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FED: Morgan Stanley economists on a balance sheet normalization. MS says in
order to "keep the fed funds rate within its target range, we project the Fed
will need to end balance sheet normalization in September 2019, earlier than the
market expects," while keeping effective federal funds rate below interest on
excess reserves "by ensuring an ample amount of excess reserves" through use of
the SOMA portfolio. MS have lowered their Treasury supply forecasts "by $690bn
through 2020, and now see the 10y yield at 2.75% by year-end and 2.50% by