Morgan Stanley on what's next for Brexit: "The...>

UK: Morgan Stanley on what's next for Brexit: "The vote was 432-202, a

government defeat by 230 votes, which was worse than expectations. The Labour

party has tabled a motion of no confidence to be debated tomorrow, but we expect

the government to survive for now. We expect PM May will seek further

concessions from the EU, and then see a run-off between the government's deal

and alternatives, in particular a second referendum. We see a low risk of a no

deal outcome (5%), given the opposition of parliament. But we have little

conviction on which of the alternative options - referendum, the current deal or

early elections - will be chosen. We expect greater clarity by early February,

before parliament runs out of time to hold elections before Brexit, assuming

that the EU will only agree to a delay once the UK has made a decision on the

way forward."