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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMorgan Stanley: Patience Through Bumpy Final Leg Of Bear Market
Morgan Stanley note that “MSCI China could be approaching the late stage of a bear market after a 14-month drawdown (51% down in absolute terms, 32% relative to MSCI EM since Feb 17, 2021), but the potential final leg is likely to be bumpy: The broader economic drag due to the Omicron spread and subsequent restrictive measures imply downside-skewed earnings pressure and a capping effect of potential immediate China policy easing. Meanwhile, external concerns, such as QT overlapped with a gloomier global outlook and extended geopolitical tension, could also curb near-term re-rating opportunity. Our June 2023 base case index targets are a respective 70; 21,500; 7,330; and 4,300 for MSCI China, Hang Seng, HSCEI, and CSI300, suggesting 9%, 7%, 8%, and 10% upside vs. the 6 May market close.”
- “We take the latest Politburo meeting signals positively, but would stay equal-weight on Chinese equities within the global EM framework in the near term. We welcome recent policymakers' reference to easing measures stepping up, with a focus on infrastructure boost, potential relaxation of property purchase restrictions and escrow fund access, and the positive role capital plays/completion of regulatory reset. That said, our China equity framework suggests that the policy positives could be discounted by the aforementioned factors, with downside risk more front-loaded in the near term.”
- “Signs to get more positive include: (sustainable) restoration of supply chain and concrete measures to prevent Covid-disruption; roadmap of Covid-zero relaxation would be a major plus; execution following the politburo announcements: easing step-up; positive guidance for regulatory reset and private enterprises; stabilization efforts for the property sector; volatility getting priced in for geopolitical tension escalation and QT/recession concerns; stabilization of CNY weakness; U.S./China audit agreement and resumption of Chinese company offshore IPOs.”
- “Continue to prefer A-shares vs. offshore China given their better positioning to benefit from potential easing in the near term, and alignment with long-term growth opportunities (IT, industrials, green economy, etc.). Latest official launch of personal pension scheme should also support institutional participation.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.