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Morgan Stanley Points Towards China Demand Slowdown

OIL

The range of oil demand growth estimates for the remainder of 2024 are unusually wide according to Martijn Rats, global commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley speaking with CNBC.

  • “The IEA is by far on the lowest end of the forecast of just about 1mn bpd of demand growth, at the far end of the spectrum is OPEC at 2.1mn bpd, wider than I have ever remembered it to be,” Rats said.
  • “It is true that demand growth is decelerating, the days of a strong post covid recover are done and summer demand is not quite living up to the expectations we had a couple of months ago,” Rats added.
  • “We are probably reaching the peak of Chinese gasoline demand due to the electrification of the fleet,” he said.
  • Rats also cited petchem weakness in China as well as a switch for higher number of diesel trucks towards gas.
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