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Morgan Stanley Sees Midyear Fed Taper

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Morgan Stanley economists expected the Fed to begin discussions regarding QT tapering soon, but suspect the process will be more protracted.

  • "Recent Fed communication has stirred market discussion about the end of QT. That narrative is overdone. We see the Fed discussing QT at upcoming meetings, likely announcing the parameters of a taper to QT in May and initiating the taper in June."
  • MS "baseline is that the Fed will cut the pace of QT in half for Treasuries, to $30bn/month, but leave MBS to run off with prepayments. If we are wrong, it is more likely the taper pace will be slower, not faster."

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