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Morning Summary: CNB Seen On Hold

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to gradually decrease with the 7D SMA of daily new cases dropping below 1,900 (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). Therefore, the Czech government approved the reopening of primary schools on May 3 and all stores from May 10. At 11am (London time), Cabinet will discuss further relaxation of pandemic lockdown, including reopening of schools in more regions and easing of curbs on cultural institutions according to Bloomberg.
  • The CNB is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.25% today (1.30pm London time) in order to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economy. Discussions over rate hikes will likely start in August with sell-side institutions pricing in 1 to 2 hikes for H2. At 2.45pm, Governor Jiri Rusnok will hold a news conference.
  • This morning, we saw that March retail sales rose 13% YoY, less than the 15.8% expected and up from -4.9% the previous month.
  • Czech unemployment will come out on Friday and is expected to decrease towards 4-4.1% due to seasonal factors.
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