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Morning Summary: CPI Final March Print Comes In At 3.2%

POLAND
  • Covid daily new cases continue to rise in Poland with the 7D SMA up from 1,800 to 21,400 in the past 4 day, still standing at an extremely high level relative to mid-February despite the little drop in cases we saw in April. As a result, Poland officials decided to prolong most Covid restrictions for another week to April 25.
  • Poland March Final CPI print came in at 3.2% (unchanged from prelim.) this morning, up from 2.4% in February.
  • Core CPI to follow on April 16, expected to rise to 3.9% in March (diverging from the 3.5% upper tolerance).
  • Governor Glapinski recently mentioned that the rise in inflation will only be temporary and the inflationary pressures should ease in the second half of 2021
    • Based on the March projections, NBP policymakers forecast CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2021, 2.8% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023.
    • Sell-side projections are lower and expect CPI inflation to average 2.9% in 2021, 2.8 % in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023.
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