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Morning Summary: CPI to remain elevated above 3% until mid-2022 (MinFin)

POLAND
  • Daily news cases have been rising in recent days with the 7D SMA rising by nearly 1,000 in the past 4 days to 20,500. As cases are still standing far above the mid-February levels (5,000/5,500 new case per day on average), officials decided to extend most of virus curbs for another 2 weeks.
  • On Tuesday, Polish government had removed a draft of the bill that ratifies the so-called own resources decision, which would allow for common European Union borrowing to finance its pandemic stimulus plan, from the agenda of its meeting on Tuesday (BBG).
  • NBP expects ROI from apartment purchases to fall, making such investments risky in the medium term. We have seen that the growth in house prices has been slowing in Poland in recent months amidst weak demand; the average price growth of existing flats in Poland 7 biggest cities rose by 5.6% in 2020, half the growth we saw in 2019 (10.84%) and 2018 (10.3%).
  • Poland recorded a EUR 1.62bn CA surplus in February, down from a revised 3.3bn EUR in January.
  • This morning, MinFin's chief economist Lukasz Czernicki said on radio TOK FM that CPI inflation is expected to stay 'elevated' above the 3-percent level until the middle of 2022, before easing down towards the NBP target (2.5%).
  • Other important economic data to watch this week are the Final March CPI inflation on April 15 (exp. At 3.2%) and the core CPI inflation on April 16, expected to rise to 3.9% in March (from 3.7% in February).
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