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Morning Summary: CZK Remains Firm Despite Rising Political Uncertainty

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA of daily new cases falling from 3,700 to 2,700 in the past week (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). At 12pm (London time), Health Minister Petr Arenberger will brief the press on Covid infections, vaccination as the country beings easing lockdown measures (reopening of non-essential shops on May 3 at the latest).
  • While a significant amount of participants are still thinking that the CNB will keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.25% through 2021 to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economy after a difficult first quarter, a rising number of sell-side firms have been pricing in one to two hikes in the second half of this year.
  • The little monetary policy divergence between CNB and the rest of the CEE central banks (Poland, Hungary) could continue to support the Czech Koruna relative to the Polish Zloty and the Hungary Forint.
  • The CZK continues to remain firm against major crosses despite the recent rise in political uncertainty amid diplomatic spat between Moscow and Prague.
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