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Morning Summary: Inflation Is Unlikely To Surpass 2.3% in 2021 (FinMin Schillerova)

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to gradually fall with the 7D SMA of daily new cases dropping below 2,500 (down from 12,300 from its early March highs). Therefore, Czech Republic will start to gradually lift restrictions from May 3, reopening shops, markets and some services.
  • Poland, Hungary and Slovakia PMs declare support for Czech R. On diplomatic spat between Moscow and Prague. "We condemn ... yet another deplorable act of aggression and breach of international law committed by Russia on European soil", the PMs said in a statement published on Monday (BBG).
  • Government approved the Convergence Programme at its meeting on Monday, in which the FinMin envisages:
    • 8.8% deficit (%GDP) this year, followed by a 5.9% deficit in 2022. (Last year, the public finance deficit was of 6.2% of the country's GDP).
    • Czech FinMin Alena Schillerova also mentioned that the programme envisages a 3.1% real GDP growth this year and a 3.7% expansion in 2022, respectively.
    • Inflation is also unlikely to surpass 2.3% this year, which is in line with sell-side average forecasts for 2021.
  • In an interview on Monday, Czech policymaker Maker Benda said that she 'sees fewer rate hikes for 2021' than previously projected. Policymakers projected three rate hikes in their winter forecast.
  • Next important data to watch in the first estimates in Q1 GDP on April 30, which is expected to contract by -2.6% YoY following a 4.8% drop in Q4 2020.
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