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Morning Summary: NBP Expected To Remain On Hold on May 5

POLAND

  • Covid daily new cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA falling from 9,600 to 6,200 in the 7 days; therefore, PM Mateusz Morawiecki announced the gradual reopening of Poland economy last Wednesday.
  • Today (4.30pm London Time), Poland is set to ratify the European Union's pandemic stimulus fund in a parliamentary vote after the government won backing for the plan from one of the opposition parties (BBG). According to the EU, Poland will be the fifth biggest beneficiary of grants from the stimulus plan.
  • Last week, we saw that preliminary April CPI rose more than expected to 4.3% (vs. 3.9% exp.), its highest level since March 2020, deviating from the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band amid surging fuel prices. However, policymakers have mentioned at several occasions that the spike in inflation is only expected to be temporary and headline and core inflation should converge back towards NBP 2.5% target.
  • Hence, the NBP is expected to keep its policy rate on hold on May 5, keeping its benchmark rate steady at 0.1%, and will continue to guide for policy rates on hold at least until the middle of 2022.
  • This morning, April manufacturing PMI fell back to 53.7 (vs. 55.3 exp.) after reaching a multi-year high of 54.30 in March.
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