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Morning Summary: Opposition Parties Plan No Confidence Vote in June

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to gradually decrease with the 7D SMA of daily new cases dropping below 1,400 (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). As a result, Czech government continues to ease pandemic restrictions, reopening shops and services after 4 months of lockdown. Czech government may open hotels and guests houses and allow indoor cultural events with as many as 500 people in the audience starting May 24.
  • On Tuesday, economic data showed that April inflation rose more than expected by 3.1% (vs. 2.7% exp.), up from 2.3% the previous month. We have seen that sell-side institutions have significantly underestimated the rise in consumer prices in the CEE region, which could increase policymakers' concerns over rising inflationary pressures. CNB commented that the CPI is in line with main 'story' of forecast.
  • First CNB hike is still priced in for as early as August, which is one of the major reasons why CZK has remained strong against major crosses in recent weeks.
  • Czech Opposition parties, which launched a bid to remove PM Andrej Babis from office, plan a no-confidence vote in June; together the parties command 68 votes (of the 200-seat lower house of parliament), which is short of the 101 votes needed to win.
  • At 9am (London time), the Czech Banking Association is scheduled to hold an online press conference to present the group's macroeconomic forecast.
  • Next economic data to watch are currently account on May 14 and PPI industrial on May 17.
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