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Morning Summary: Sell-side Forecasts GDP Growth To Drop By 2.5% In Q1

CZECHIA
  • As Covid cases have significantly dropped in the past 6 weeks (the 7D SMA of daily new cases has now dropped below 4,000), the government decided to lift some of the restrictions, removing the nighttime curfew and the ban on travel between counties. In addition, German-Czech border controls expires on Wednesday (with no renewal according to Bloomberg) .
  • Median first-quarter GDP growth forecast for Czech currently stands at -2.5% based on current sell-side projections as the worsening Covid situation in Q1 has significantly reduced the economic activity.
  • CPI inflation has risen slightly less than expected in March by 2.3% (vs. 2.4% exp.) on Tuesday, from 2.1% the previous month. As for other economies in the CEE region, inflation is also expected to continue to increase in the short term amid soaring fuel prices before starting to cool down in the second half of 2021.
  • Czech also recorded a slightly lower than expected Current Account Surplus in February of 24.28bn CZK (vs. 28.35bn exp.).
  • At 1pm (London time), the Finance Ministry will publish its updated economic forecasts.
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