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Most Analysts Going For 75bp In July Post-June FOMC (2/2)

Wells Fargo stands out for changing its economic base case to a recession following the June FOMC:
  • JPMorgan: “Our year-end funds rate forecast of 3.125% is 25bp below the median FOMC participant’s, though our growth outlook for this year is also below the median participant’s, and we see downside risks building.”
  • Morgan Stanley: “We expect the Fed to deliver an additional 75bp hike at its July meeting before stepping the path down to a peak of 3.625% end of this year.”
  • NatWest: “Like the Fed, we now expect an additional 175bps of tightening to 3.375% (4 more hikes this year: +75bps in July, +50bps in Sept, +25bps in Nov and +25bps in Dec) and 50bps more of tightening in early 2023 to 3.875%.
  • Wells Fargo: "Changing our base case forecast for next year from an economic soft landing to a mild recession starting in mid-2023...we look for the Committee to hike rates by an additional 275 bps by early next year".

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