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Most Of Empire Mfg Miss Recovered Ahead Of Retail Sales, Further Heavy Fedspeak

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates head towards the end of the session having reversed the 2bp dip for June on a far weaker than expected but noisy Empire mfg survey, although it doesn’t materially change the path with just +3bps priced.
  • Rates for subsequent meetings remain off pre-data highs but still edge higher on the day. Cumulative moves from current 5.08% effective: +3bp Jun (+1.5bp on the day), -5bp Jul (+2.5bp), -20bp Sep (+2.5bp), -43bp Nov (+3bp), -67bp Dec (+2.5bp) and -91bp Jan (+2bp).
  • Today’s Fedspeak has included a dovish Goolsbee (’23) on the May rate decision being a close call and a hawkish Kashkari (’23) with no real surprises there, whilst Bostic (’24) sees a case for rates on hold whilst assessing past tightening but with a bias to higher rates.
  • Along with retail sales and IP, tomorrow sees another heavy Fedspeak schedule with Mester (’24), VC Supervision Barr (voter), NY Fed’s Williams (voter) and Logan (’23) when leaving aside those who have spoken today.
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