Most USD/Asia Pairs Higher, Won Underperforms

Most USD/Asia pairs have crept higher as the session has progressed. The won has been a notable underperformer, despite a firmer onshore equity tone. Losses have been more modest elsewhere, while IDR is around flat at this stage, leaving modest rupiah outperformance. Tomorrow the main focus will be on China's MLF decision and the October activity prints.

• Spot USD/CNH sits higher, but comfortably within recent ranges. The pair last 7.3030, after opening closer to 7.2900. Local and HK equities have struggled for positive traction. Tomorrow delivers key event risks in terms of the 1yr MLF decision and October activity prints. Later on Wednesday, President Xi and US President Biden are expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
• 1 month USD/KRW has firmed today. The pair last near 1327, around 0.60% weaker in won terms versus NY closing levels from Monday (under 1320). Local equities are higher, as the PM voiced support for the recently introduced short selling ban, but this isn't providing won relief. Elevated USD/JPY levels are working to support the pair while broader USD sentiment has also been supported.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is marginally lower this morning, the measure sits well within recent ranges. We sit ~0.4% below the top of the band. USD/SGD continues to see-saw around the $1.36 handle as narrow ranges persist. The pair has observed a $1.3580/1.3620 range for the most part since Friday. A reminder that the local data docket is thin this week with just October Non-Oil and Electronic Exports due on Friday.
• USD/PHP sits near 56.10 in recent dealings, slightly weaker in PHP terms versus yesterday's closing levels. Recent dips in the pair sub 56.00 haven't been sustained, with early Nov lows around 55.78. Also note the 200-day EMA comes in at 55.95. On the topside, the 100-day EMA is near 56.27. The main event risk this week is Thursday's BSP decision. The consensus is for no change, but some forecasters are penciling in a 25bps hike (current policy rate is 6.50%). Recent BSP rhetoric has been hawkish but Oct CPI data surprised on the downside.
• The Ringgit has reopened, after Malaysian markets were closed for the observance of a national holiday yesterday, marginally softer as participants digest recent moves in US Tsy Yields. USD/MYR prints at 4.7115/80, ~0.1% above Friday's closing levels. The pair is consolidating above the 4.70 handle after breaking above the figure last week. Looking ahead; the docket is empty until Friday's Q3 GDP print, a rise of 3.3% Y/Y is expected. Q3 Current Account Balance is also due.
• Local markets are closed in India today for the observance of a national holiday. A reminder that on the wires yesterday was October CPI which printed at 4.87%, a touch above the expected 4.80%. The prior read was 5.02%. On the wires today is October Wholesale Prices, they are expected to fall 0.38% Y/Y accelerating a touch from the prior read of -0.26% Y/Y.
• USD/IDR sits unchanged, last tracking just under 15700. We have had a narrow range so far today, as markets await key US data later, when the CPI prints. Recent USD/IDR highs rest just above 15720, which is also near the 20-day EMA. On the downside, the 50-day sits back near 15614.5. A recovery in bond inflows stalled towards the end of last week, but November has still seen $582.7mn of net inflows month to date. This follows a number of months of firm outflow pressure. BI sounded a little less dovish late yesterday, by nudging up their 2024 CPI projection to 3.2% from a 2.8% forecast made back in September.