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MOVE In Middle Of Range Seen Since Feb Spike

US TSYS

The ICE-Bank of America MOVE Index is currently operating around the middle of the range witnessed since the late February spike, with participants focused on this month's Jackson Hole Symposium as the next potential staging post for Fed policy. Nearer-term, Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement from the U.S. Tsy and Friday's NFP print provide the two major points of note for market participants this week. Comments from Fed Vice Chair Clarida (Wednesday) will also be eyed.

  • While the outright richening in June-July and curve flattening that took place (largely) in June caught most off guard, it would seem that strategists have started to take account of the recent richening when it comes to year-end forecasts, with the latest BBG survey median for 10-Year Tsy Yields looking for 1.80% (prev. 1.88%) yield levels come the end of '21, while the BBG median now looks for 30-Year yields to end the year at 2.42% (prev. 2.55%).

Fig. 1: ICE-Bank of America MOVE Index

Source: Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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