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MOVE/VIX Ratio Is Back to Pre-Covid Highs

US
  • In the past few weeks, we have seen that the volatility in the bond market has been surging amid growing concern over inflation risks tomorrow's Fed meeting.
  • It seems that inflation will be more 'persistent' than previously expected in the US and most of DM and EM countries.
  • On the other hand, momentum on the equity market has remained firm with the SP500 trading at new record highs; the index broke above the 4,600 level on Friday.
  • As a result, the MOVE/VIX ratio has been surging in recent weeks, currently standing at its highest level since Q4 2019.
  • Can the momentum in equities remain firm if yields continue to retrace sharply higher?
  • A significant tightening in 'financial conditions' (sharp upside move on LT bond yields) has generally been negative for risk assets (i.e. equities).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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