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Moving Back Closer To 100bp Of Fed Cuts In 2024

STIR
  • A dovish Waller continues to trump a still hawkish Bowman (both permanent voters), with Waller saying three, four or five months of similar inflation readings could prompt lower rates judging by Taylor Rules.
  • Fed Funds implied rates suggest any further tightening is again nearly priced out (back to 1bp for Dec), whilst May starts to be looked at more seriously again for a first cut (cumulative 20bp, -5bp since shortly before Waller started speaking).
  • Implied rates sit 6-7bp lower through 2H24 meetings, with 96bp of cuts from current levels to end-2024 vs 89bp an hour ago. They're back to nearly one full cut on top of what was priced before US CPI.

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