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MPR and decision due at 7:00GMT

BOE
Reminder that today's BOE meeting has been moved to 7:00GMT. Note that there were a number of press stories late yesterday/overnight pointing to potential upside surprises. The Sun noted GBP150bln was likely (or as high as GBP200bln) while a NIESR economist told MNI that the pace of QE may have to accelerate.
  • The overwhelming majority of analyst BOE previews we have read look for the MPC to extend QE by GBP100bln. Saturday's announcement from Prime Minister Boris Johnson that England would begin a second month-long lockdown beginning on Thursday has been the final straw for some analysts to fall in line with consensus.
  • However, the MNI Markets team believes that the decision over the size of the QE extension is far less clear cut than the previews that we have been reading would suggest and a very compelling argument can be made for a smaller GBP75bln extension to QE. We look at the arithmetic of how a GBP75bln package would play out.
  • Overall, we think that the decision over whether to increase QE by GBP75bln or GBP100bln is poised on a knife edge. We think that a GBP75bln extension would be more appropriate but concede that the MPC might not want to disappoint and almost unanimous market expectation that QE will be extended by GBP100bln.
See below for the full MNI BOE Preview including summaries of 21 sell side analysts.

https://marketnews.com/boe-preview-november-2020-the-case-for-gbp75bln

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