-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMS: AHE To Be Supported By Upward Calendar Bias
- Morgan Stanley see nonfarm payrolls rising 300k in July (private 290k) after June's 372k as payrolls growth continues to decelerate as economic activity slows but remains strong.
- Ahead, they see nonfarm payrolls growth slowing from the average monthly 457k in 1H22 to 220k in 2H22 and 108k in 2023.
- Data since the last payroll report points to labor market slack beginning to ease from extremely tight levels, with JOLTS suggesting that excess labor demand continues to ease from its very high levels.
- Further, the Conference Board labor market differential of jobs plentiful vs hard to get fell 2.1pts to 37.8%, the 4-week average of unemployment insurance claims increased 19k between reference weeks (possibly biased by by seasonal adjustments) and ISM manufacturing employment remains in contraction territory.
- AHE seen re-accelerating to 0.4% M/M supported by an upward calendar bias, lowering the year-ago rate a tenth to 5.0% Y/Y whilst the average workweek holds steady at 34.5.
- U/E rate seen steady at 3.6% as the participation rate increased a tenth to 62.3%.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.