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MS: Core PCE Seen at +0.25% M/M

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
BulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign Exchange
  • Morgan Stanley estimate core PCE inflation at +0.25% M/M in April (cons +0.3%), notably slower than the +0.57% M/M for CPI as the wedge between the two grows increasingly wide, pushing the year-ago rate from 5.2% to 4.8% Y/Y.
  • They see personal income printing another +0.5% M/M in April, driven by continued strength in labor compensation (the aggregate income proxy in payrolls was a solid +0.65% M/M).
  • Personal spending meanwhile likely moderated to +0.6% M/M from +1.1% prior whilst the saving rate increases from 6.2% to 7.6%.
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  • Morgan Stanley estimate core PCE inflation at +0.25% M/M in April (cons +0.3%), notably slower than the +0.57% M/M for CPI as the wedge between the two grows increasingly wide, pushing the year-ago rate from 5.2% to 4.8% Y/Y.
  • They see personal income printing another +0.5% M/M in April, driven by continued strength in labor compensation (the aggregate income proxy in payrolls was a solid +0.65% M/M).
  • Personal spending meanwhile likely moderated to +0.6% M/M from +1.1% prior whilst the saving rate increases from 6.2% to 7.6%.