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MS has released its 2021 European economic outlook

OUTLOOK

Morgan Stanley has released its 2021 European economic outlook document. The highlights in terms of its expectations of central bank policies are:

  • ECB: MS expects "a large December 2020 QE top-up – which we revise from €400 billion to €500 billion on the worse second wave – to reinforce the commitment to keep policy easy until the recovery is secure, alongside guidance that QE and discount TLTRO will continue in 2022."
  • ECB strategic review outcome: MS expects "a more dovish symmetrical inflation target of 2%Y."
  • BoE: MS expects the "MPC to take the UK to ZIRP"
  • Scandies: MS looks for "the Riksbank to return to NIRP, while Norges Bank will be the first DM central bank to hike in this cycle, exiting ZIRP in 2022."
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