MS released its 2020..........>

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION: MS released its 2020 Outlook yesterday. Highlights below:

- "Trade tensions and monetary policy are easing concurrently for the first time

in seven quarters, lifting global growth from 1Q20 on. The recovery will be

driven more by emerging markets as the US is clearly in late-cycle. Risks remain

skewed to the downside, with uncertainty related to macro policies likely to

linger."

- "Reduced risks of non-linearity kicking in"

- "Consumption to drive the initial recover"

- "2020 a year of mini-cycle recovery in the context of a late-cycle expansion"

- "Risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside: Should the December 15

tariffs go into effect, global growth will decelerate further to 2.8%Y in 4Q19

and the recovery will be delayed until 3Q20. At the same time, it will bring

back the risks of non-linearity kicking in and raise the risks of a global

recession. Late-cycle challenges in the US, especially corporate credit risk,

and the risk of rising uncertainty around US elections are concerns and could

emerge simultaneously in the second half of the year."