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MS: Seasonal Upside Risk For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Morgan Stanley forecast NFP growth of 190k in July (cons 200k) after 209k in June, with private at 160k after 149k.
  • They see AHE rising 0.3% M/M for a moderation from June. The average workweek probably stalled at 34.4, which they expect to remain the case until this fall when falling labor demand is reflected in both slower employment gains and shorter hours.
  • With little change expected for labor force participation this month at 62.6%, they see the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%.
  • "Seasonal factors are an upside risk to our forecast. In June, they subtracted 489k from NSA payrolls (697k) to arrive at the seasonally adjusted gain of 208k. In July, they add: last year 855k, and pre-pandemic more than a million. Much of that is for education payrolls, but private payroll seasonal factors also have the potential to add to NSA changes after subtracting in recent years."
  • "Jobless claims continue to point to labor market weakness. Continuing claims are reported to have fallen but the decline reflects seasonal factors distorted by the pandemic. Re-adjusted using prepandemic seasonals, they continue to trend upward, consistent with ongoing slowing in the labor market and with the trend this year in payrolls."
  • They fade the ADP beat: ADP is no longer geared towards predicting BLS figures and the detail of the report for both July and June included odd strength in a few areas.
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