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MS Sees NBP Policy Rate Reaching 3.75% by September

POLAND
  • With inflation likely to stay above the upper limit of the NBP's tolerance band until 2H23 and growth still coming out on the strong side, MS now expects a more extended hiking cycle.
  • Analysts continue to expect the NBP to deliver a 50bp hike on February 8 and another 25bp hike in March.
  • Yet, now MS thinks that the NBP will also continue to deliver standard 25bp hikes throughout 2Q and 3Q this year every other month to keep tightening monetary policy gradually, in order to preserve sustainable growth ahead.
  • Thus, MS now sees the policy rate reaching 3.75% by September as opposed to 3.00% in March.

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