Muddled Communications Seem Like A Hawk-Dove Compromise (1/2)

A few initial post-Powell press conference thoughts:

• This was not Powell's best press conference and the communications overall today certainly weren't great - perhaps reflective of an increasing divide on the FOMC that the Chair is trying to bridge.
• The whole communication / dot plot setup, including the press conference, looked like an aggressive compromise to get the hawks on board.
• Powell struggled to justify why they didn't hike today vs pointing to 2 more hikes at some point later this year. It would have made a lot more sense to guide prior to blackout to a hike today, and deliver on it, but the FOMC appears to have gotten boxed in. It's a communications error that appears to have been compounded by overcompensating on hawkish comms.
• And his discussion about rate cuts (a "couple of years out" seems like he meant 2024 as per the Dot Plot but could be interpreted 2025?) was clumsy.
• The fact that Powell called July "live" certainly says a hike then must be the core scenario (and accidentally calling today a "skip" before correcting himself suggests that he sees another hike).