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MUFG's John Herrmann noted "spike.....>

US DATA REACT
US DATA REACT: MUFG's John Herrmann noted "spike up in the seasonal adjustment
factor "crimps" payroll gain" in Dec. He cited "statistical reasons that biased
lower the Dec monthly nonfarm payroll gain"; but his models show "solid" US
labor mkt "underlying momentum," with 2018 avg "monthly pace of job growth" near
+176.43K.
- He noted models correctly forecast sharp spike in "Dec Seasnl Adjustmt factor"
thus "softer gain in nonfarm payrolls +148K mom than mkt participants" hoped."
- He cited "very weak establishment collection rate/response rate," that "biased
lower the Dec nonfarm payroll gain. What our models gleaned was that there were
so many people working, and feeling so confident, that they were all out on
vacation at the end of the year and the last thing they wanted to do was submit
an employment report to the BLS."
- He adds "-38K" birth-death plug "weak; "bad weather"" hurt "payrolls" amid
Calif. wildfires, upper Midwest cold "caused a jump in the statistic "not at
work due to bad weather." "Risk" Dec jobs revised up "likely not more than
+31K," he said.

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