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Multi-Family Construction Peaking (2/2)

US DATA

Though the leading indicators (particularly permits) suggest a turnaround in single family housing activity, this will take some time to feed through to construction data, which continues to show strength in multi-family units.

  • Single family units under construction in April (698k annualized, vs 708k prior) were the lowest since Jul 2021, while multi-family construction hit an all-time high (977k, vs 960k prior).
  • The total units under construction (1,675k) remained slightly below the all-time high set in October 2022 at 1,710k, but extremely elevated on a historical basis.
  • Multi-family activity is set to slow on the back of higher interest rates and as rental price growth pulls back from multi-decade highs. Indeed, multi-unit completions are part of the softening rent/shelter CPI narrative for the coming quarters.
  • Conversely, improving sentiment, sustained (so far) high house prices in the face of higher mortgage rates, and the recent bounce in permits/starts point to stabilization and a potential pickup in single-family activity in the quarters ahead.



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