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Muted Open, RBA Minutes Due

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are little changed (YM flat & XM flat) after US tsy yields declined 2-3bp out to the 20-year with the 2-year closing at 4.74% with the 10-year at 3.81%. The 2/10 curve was little changed around -93bp. It was a muted NY session on Monday with US tsys respecting recent ranges with little follow-through on moves. Light volumes observed.

  • Cash ACGBs opened flat to 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +17bp.
  • Swap rates are 1bp lower.
  • Bills pricing is -1 to +1.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing opened little changed across meetings with a 38% chance attached to a 25bp hike in August. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.44% (Feb’24).
  • (AFR) Despite the steep rise in borrowing costs, house prices appear to again be pushing higher. According to CoreLogic, national home values rose 2.8 per cent in the June quarter, the highest quarterly rise since January 2022. (See link)
  • Today sees the release of the RBA Minutes for the July meeting, with the market looking for more details about the July pause.
  • Later today sees June US retail sales and industrial production, May US business inventories, and the July NAHB housing market index.

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