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MXN On Backfoot Ahead Of Banxico Meeting

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso remains on the backfoot on Wednesday, amid a firmer greenback, with USDMXN rising by ~0.6% to around 18.20. The current bull cycle in USDMXN remains in play and initial support to watch moves up to 18.01, the 20-day EMA.
  • With no macro data due today, attention is on tomorrow’s Banxico monetary policy meeting. Most analysts expect Banxico to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 11.00%, with some seeing an outside chance of a 25bp cut. Post-election market turbulence, the sharp depreciation of the peso and a cautious Fed skews the risks firmly towards another hold. However, with the minutes of the May meeting suggesting a June adjustment may be considered, the downside surprise for core CPI in May and the high level of restrictive policy, Thursday’s decision is not set in stone.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • In other news, Pemex was given a deferral of its monthly tax payment, according to a decree published Tuesday evening. Pemex will be allowed to defer until July 31 a May payment that was coming due this month.

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