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MXN Starts Week On Front Foot, Banxico Decision Eyed

MEXICO
  • USDMXN is roughly half a percent lower since Friday’s close amid bolstered risk sentiment since the open. The weekend saw Chinese trade data for July reveal a wider than expected surplus aided by much firmer than expected exports, which has supported the likes of AUD and NZD overnight.
    • A key short-term resistance for USDMXN has been defined at 20.8335, Wednesday’s high. The reversal from this level suggests scope for a deeper short-term pullback and attention is on support at 20.2080, the Jul 29 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 20.00 handle.
  • Thursday’s Banxico decision looks to be a fairly straight forward one. As of writing, all 18 surveyed analysts are expecting another 75bp hike of the overnight target rate from 7.75% to 8.50%.
  • Focus for markets will be on the statement and whether there are any references to the expected depth of the current cycle or any signals regarding the potential magnitude of tightening in September.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views will be published on Tuesday.
  • The latest Citi survey saw analysts raise their 2022 CPI estimate to 7.74% Vs. 7.68% in the prior survey. 2023 year-end inflation was marginally raised to 4.51% from 4.50%.
    • The next rate move is expected to be a 75bp increase this week.
    • 2022 GDP held at 1.80%, 2023 GDP cut to 1.50% from 1.60%
    • 2022 year-end rate held at 9.50%, 2023 year-end rate cut to 9.13% from 9.25%.
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